N E G A S H I - OJ

First Hijra Radio Broadcast - 28 Dec. 2008

Ethiopia: Muslim critics reject national census for “missing millions”

A mosque in Harar, Oromia. The city of Harar is widely considered to be the 4th holiest city in Islam.

 [Jimma Times] Ethiopian Muslim critics say the country’s national census that put the Muslim population at 33.9 percent of the nation is inaccurate. They claim Muslims total between 45 and 50 percent of the country.

The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) recently announced that the Ethiopian Orthodox population makes up 43.5 percent of the country while Protestant Christians are 18.6 percent, for a total Christian population of 62.1 percent.

According to a Jimma Times correspondent in Oromia, critics claim the Ethiopian population census was flawed in its methodology in addition to being influenced by the country’s ethno-political and religious divisions. In Jimma town, one of the Muslim dominated places of Ethiopia, some believe the growth of Muslim development and aid organizations financed by the Gulf States have effectively checked the Protestant Christian influences financed by the West.

In addition to concerns of seasonal movement of nomadic Muslim inhabitants in the Somali, Oromia and Afar regional states affecting the census, Muslim critics anticipated a bigger impact from the civil war in Somalia on refugee driven growth in southeastern Ethiopia.

However, some Ethiopian Christians blame western organizations who made unverified estimations that put Muslim population much higher. During the last few years, institutions like the US State Department approximated Muslims to be around 50 percent of Ethiopia without giving reference. Such US predictions have been duplicated and often used worldwide, instead of the last 1994 census. The General Director of the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) Samia Zekaria said outside predictions are not accurate. Speaking in an interview, she said “there is a difference between those making guesses and the work CSA does on the ground by going door to door”

The discontent of Muslims was also displayed this week by two Europe-based Ethiopian Muslim radio stations, Radio Negashi and First Hijra Radio. They rejected the census saying that many millions of Muslims are not counted. The radio stations also condemned some Christians who are reportedly bringing back destructive slogans about Ethiopia being an “Island of Christianity.”

Meanwhile, some evangelical Christians also rejected the census claiming that their number should have been around 7 percent more, for a total of 25 percent of the country. They say Muslims are proportionally overrepresented in the Ethiopian parliament and inside Meles Zenawi’s government. They also claim evangelical Christianity is disdained in some rural regions and its followers are often fearful of being expelled from their families if they acknowledge their membership in an evangelical church.

In contrast, most Orthodox Christians have not showed opposition to the census, even though their population has been drastically reduced from over 50 percent in the 1994 census to only 43.5 percent in the 2007 census. But some opposition party members of the Ethiopian parliament have rejected the census numbers for the Addis Ababa and Amhara Regions, claiming that millions have not been counted. These two regions are traditionally Orthodox dominated areas and some opposition supporters accuse the government for allegedly undercounting them because the two areas were the powerbase of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) opposition party during the 2005 national election.

Similarly, members of parliament representing the Gurage and Oromo ethnic groups have criticized the census results as well. The Chairman of the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM) Bulcha Demeksa said around 460,000 Oromos are not counted in Oromia. Bulcha, who has previously worked for the United Nations (UN) and World Bank (WB), said he is aware of both the “technical and political aspects” of coordinating a census in various countries around the world. Bulcha said all countries use UN technical assistance but governments often have the final say.

Despite the various concerns about the census, most Ethiopians encouraged a united front to protect religious tolerance and secular governance in the country. The host of the First Hijra Radio in Europe advised evangelical Christians to be cautious for the sake of peace in Ethiopia. “Let us open our eyes to extremist and intolerant forms of both Islam and Christianity,” he added.

Ethiopian Muslims take pride in being the first society to embrace Islam. When Prophet Muhammed’s followers were persecuted in the Arab society, his followers fled Mecca and migrated to Ethiopia in 615, making the renowned northern town of Negash their first African settlement.

Radio Negashi presentation assesses the the campaigns conducted in the months and weeks leading to the census to limit the number of Ethiopian Muslims to the statusquo which continuously under estimated their number. It has also brought to us opinions experessed during a discussion (teleconference) organised by NEME on Dec. 13, 2007 and Muslims from around the world took part. Visit: Radio Negashi Website

[NEME] On its December 21, 2008 broadcast, First Hijra Radio held a Live Discussion with Muslims from Europe and North America on the Census 2007. The census result is already rejected by Muslims from out and inside Ethiopia as one in a serious of measures designed to deny them the right for relgious equality, freedom and full involvement in the democratic process of the country.

This presentation goes beyond the numbers and from what many of us have so far heard  or thought - please listen it and invite others to do the same.

[EEJ]In our previous article we have seen how the evangelicals declared ‘Christian state’ in reaction to the census data. It is very interesting to hear them declaring their state and calling to sell to the world, at the time their counterparts and competitors Alshabab of Somalia declared that utopian aspiration of eying Alaska of the supper power US, to establish ‘Muslims states’ and mentioned as many countries as they could. What? What? What do the kinds of Alshabab and those declared ‘Christian island/state’ in Ethiopia have in common? Calm down! They have a lot, I stress a lot in common than differences. EEJ will give an honest and through insight about ‘Muslim and Christian’ extremists and how disastrous they could be to our beloved country. It is in the hope that it would be an eye cracker to both ordinary Muslims and Christians, who are confused in between and help them to filter the truth somehow. We can’t allow our differences, no matter how big it is, to be utilized by these extremists which we all lose but them. That would be in the coming article so keep tuned.

Now, in this article we look at how our country orthodox Christians have responded to the census data. As mentioned in the previous article they were generally tending to look at the reason behind the ‘decline’. Islam, evangelicals and the government were pointed as the main causes behind it. In this regard the Addis journal article questioning if the “Orthodox Church is losing the ground?” was largely circulated. There is still interesting debate around it, and we look at the article that attracted so much attention and how its substance addresses the question. In fact her we focus on the interfaith issues, or where we intersect in the causes cited.

Muslims revival?

In attempts to answer if the “Orthodox church is losing ground” Arefe wrote an article which almost entirely based on 2003 essay of Medhane Tadesse. The article starts with mentioning “Pentecostal churches” and “Muslims revival” as what is said to be the causes behind the erosion of EOC. The blog continues to add what is “often cited” to what is” said” as a cause which happens to be “secularism”, and then the stage is handed over to Medhane Tadesse view.

Tadesse essay revolves around the common rhetoric of post 9/11 security, phobia and conspiracy theories which became daily events. What is noteworthy,though, is how Tedesse utilize the phobia to push his cause. Medhane Tadesse, looking through the security lenses, says he believes EOC dominance to be an instrumental for the stability of the country and argues that if they feel that their dominant position threatened this would lead to violence.

“One major basis for the long history of religious tolerance in Ethiopia , I believe, was the feeling on the part of EOC that its dominant position was not in any way challenged; hence it was willing to tolerate the other religions.”

Ato Taddese continues to point out how the EOC is challenged by losing its members to what he called “missionary churches” and “Wahabis” and he continues to say:

“Arguably, if it has to survive it must prevail. Sooner or later this will lead to violent confrontation and conflict.”

The Ethiopian scholar, also points out the loopholes of EOC, suggesting ways to fix, so that the church would defend its position. According to Arefe, However, Medhane Tadese is of the even of the opinion of regulating religious freedom.

“The scholar is of the opinion that that religious freedom should be regulated”Arefe of Addis Journal ads.

Read more on Ethiopia for Equality and Freedom, EEJ

Imposition of Islamic law in Somalia questioned - 20 Dec 08

The armed group al-Shabab aim is to impose strict Islamic law across Somalia. In the cities they already control, everything deemed un-Islamic has been quickly destroyed. Zakaryya Abdelhady, a professor of Islamic thought and culture at Qatar University in Doha, discusses sharia and al-Shabab’s actions with Al Jazeera.

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Somali fighters destroying shrines - 20 Dec 08

The anti-government al-Shabab group which has taken control of several areas of southern and central Somalia. In the areas they control they have begun destroying anything deemed un-Islamic, including graves and churches. Al Jazeera’s Mohammed Adow reports exclusively from Kismayu.

Can we start here to unpuzzle the the missing 2 mill or so Ethiopians from the Amhara Region?

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By Cens Kerk

Absurd statistical gimmick in Ethiopia’s 2007 census and the need for accounting for the missing 3.0 million people in Amhara and Addis Ababa.

When the second population and housing census was conducted in 1994 (the first was in 1984), the total population of Ethiopia was 53.5 million, putting the country the second most populous in Africa. There were no surprises or inconsistencies in the results of both censuses. Unlike its predecessors, the 2007 National Population and Housing Census was accompanied by long delays and the results contained horrific inconsistencies and unprecedented errors.

The much awaited population census result was made public a couple of weeks ago. According to the new census, the country is home to only 73.9 million people in 2007, significantly lower than the 79.1 million expected based on the 1994 census and various demographic surveys carried out between 1994 and 2007 (see World Bank, Ethiopia at a Glance). The population growth rate has been reduced from 2.6 to 2.51. What is striking about the census is that the lower overall population number or growth rate is attributed to a sharp decline mainly in two regions, namely Amhara and Addis Ababa.

• Read more: Absurd Statistical Gimmick in Ethiopia’s 2007 Census

The unique argument that justified the “Millennium’s Biggest Lie!”

“I see in the House quite a few women wearing a headscarf; like myself this was not the case in pervious times. So when we are now exercising our rights more freely, it could seem that there is a high population presence. The growth is still there but probably not as perceived.”

Right Reserved @ Samia Zekeriya, Director General CSA

Please visit Ethiotube.net for a two part interview she made with ETV.  Particularly Part II is interesting - scrol to 10′52 and wonder the Q&A.

By. M.S. Tahir 

The confidence that was wrongly placed in the current Ethiopian government in rectifying the historical injustice that was committed by the previous governments is quickly plummeting as we see a trend of similar behaviour of the previous rulers being exhibited. While initially Ethiopian Muslims were hopeful and supportive of the EPRDF government, current events that culminated with the recent revelation of the skewed Census Population have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that for Ethiopian Muslims in relation to our demand for an equal right is far fetched aspiration that keeps deluding us. One thing that has become abundantly clear is that as Ethiopian Muslims, we have a long way to go to achieve our equal rights and the illusion that our rights will be given to us is something we have to abandon and quickly realize that rights are not given as the Prime Minister have been heard saying repeatedly but rather acquired. To this end, we have to muster our wherewithal in getting organized toward achieving equality and justice.

I have watched the interview that ETV conducted with Mrs. Samia Zakaria, Director General of the Census Population regarding the process of how the Census was conducted and of course the reporter asked questions that he was coached to ask and designed to get an answer that he and his bosses wanted to hear not necessarily to get to the bottom of the issue. Of course Mrs. Samia was very generous in providing him with what he was looking for in uncertain manner when she convincingly stated that 33.9% of the population is Muslims. Now one wonders why the reporter would only be interested in knowing the number of Ethiopian Muslims. Why wouldn’t he ask about the number of Christians? Or the atheists for that matter, unless the reporter was asking the question to find solace in Mrs. Zakaria’s answers. The most telling of all is that Mrs. Zakaria informed us that the agency deployed close to 90,000 teachers to conduct the survey. Would she be able to tell us how many of them were Muslims? Now you can accuse me of being racist, but in a country where the dominant culture and view has not changed when it comes to the Ethiopian Muslims’ rights, how am I supposed to entrust my counterparts who do not believe in my existence as a Muslim of an Ethiopian origin to be the ultimate judge and place responsibility in deciding on my behalf. This is indeed a case of a fox entrusted to look after a chicken.

I am encouraged to see the recent gathering and expression of dismay and a rejection of the census result. However, I urge all those who have the ability to impact changes continue to deliberate on these issues and impress upon our communities that this is unacceptable and that we need to put our resource toward bringing a real change. I have said in the past that census is not only body counting, but it has significant implications in meting out policies that will have long lasting implications for generations to come. This point was in fact clearly reiterated by Mrs. Zakaria and assured the reporter of ETV that this is the case and that policy makers will be using this data for future government activities and allocation of resources.

Mrs. Zakaria brushed aside all previous numbers as a guess work and only estimates and she reports by saying the reality on the ground does support her scientific findings. What makes this census results more doubtful of its scientific precision that Mrs. Zakaria talks about is that many of those who want to see the stats quo of “ChristianIsland” maintained, have been heard using the same figures before they were officially announced. Well, I guess she is entitled to her views on the matter, but all rational thinkers will have a hard time believing the unbelievable.

Let us work together in bringing a real change that is truly inclusive and fair system that reflects the true demographics of the Ethiopian population.

Just before I wrap up my modest article, I would like to point out one striking statement that she made in this regard. She only counted those who are residence of that particular place. Did she count those who are not Muslims but went for business to area where Muslims are dominant? There are a plethora of questions that need to be answered. However, it has become crystal clear that you cannot find an honest answer from the types Mrs. Zakaria who have become complacent in the blunder of a historical magnitude

[EMJ] Facilitated by Network of Ethiopian Muslims NEME, Ethiopian Muslim organizations, leaders , activists , associations, thinkers and scholars all over the world had a teleconference on the census data and its implications. The conference was a unique one, as the participants tried to be as much candid as possible and let aside the so called political correctness.The conference was transmitted Live to a large audiences on palktak who had their chance to participate on the conference.

The discussion , in general, continued for about 7 hrs and it would be far beyond this article to convey it. Leaving aside to other mass media the details let us share the core points and the uniqueness of the conference and the discussion.

As there was an absolute consensus ,no time was spent on discussing of the corruptness of the census data at all. For Ethiopian muslims they lived it for along time, even they had a time were their very existence was denied. However, a detail was given on how things were developing for the latest census data, which Muslims had some hope of reversing the denial tradition, including under and above ground actors from insiders.

Muslims organization felt that they were let down by the government. That is after they had a land mark journey which they raised several muslim issues directly with the prime minster, which included the census data. A Badr member and one of the top leaders who led the journey expressed this as the “last one of a chain of our demands that we got it slapped on our face”, despite the promise. “we have been doing this for the sake of our country and the love that we have for it. We know that the country will never prosper as long as the majority who are Muslims are oppressed.”He stressed .

The conference and the discussion was far beyond pointing fingers which Muslims usually do to get a temporary relief to their pain.In fact Muslims focused on self criticisms and self evaluation. They asked their failure to have any kind of impact of what so ever on the ground. ” What would you bring if they were to claim Muslims as 2%?”, one activist asked. A hot debate and discussion followed this reality, to get deeper and touch the reality.

Many found it to be things deeper than simple numbers and far beyond the existing regime. History and experience was briefly visited including the changes the country has seen wih regime changes. ” There are variables and static or invariable parts of policies”, a thinker and a scholar explained. “Policies regarding muslims issues are among the fixed ,unchanging part of the policies”, he continued. He warned that some muslims should not be deluded by the variables, and should not expect that a solution by changing a prime minister or individuals, but within inside.

All participants have come to a conclusion that to shake the invariables and bring justice and coexistence based on mutual respect, muslims should show their existence in reality, regardless of what the paper says. There was an understanding that blame lies on muslims themselves, not on christian elites and media who organized themselves to their own objective no matter how narrow and greedy their target might be.

“Good News! Good News!” it was that amazing person once again. Everybody who is dismayed by what is going on was surprised to hear him saying this at a time muslims thought that the good news are far beyond their imagination.

“You might be surprised that I see a good news at statistical data which slaughtered millions of muslism! That apparently is not a good news, but nothing is new about this. The good news is that a record number of Ethiopian muslims are gathring and patiently discussed this single issue for a record length of time. For the first time I see muslims feeling the pain and expressing their readiness to bring a change. I am optimistic that change is coming and that is the GOOD NEWS.!!!”

Of the how to react a short ,a medium and a long run actions were proposed. They include legal, political and social activities to increase the awareness and expose how flawed the census data is, but in scientific and and organized way.